Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Painted Bunting Population Trend in North Carolina
Painted Bunting in North Carolina has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
-78%Since 1968
5Routes In State
50Years
Notable Painted Bunting Trends in North Carolina
long arc declinecomputed index
Painted Bunting has collapsed in North Carolina: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
Painted Bunting Population Forecast in North Carolina
If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in North Carolina is projected to fall about 90% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-90%Change by 2029
0.01Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.1995% range
±84.6%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| 2026 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| 2027 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| 2028 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| 2029 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
Painted Bunting Survey Routes in North Carolina
| Myrtle Grove | 7 | 2024 | 1966 |
| Shallotte | 2 | 1991 | 1967 |
| Merrimon | 1 | 2023 | 1996 |
| Supply | 1 | 2017 | 1992 |
| Newport | 1 | 2022 | 1998 |
Painted Bunting Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.