BirdAnalyst
Species · Georgia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Painted Bunting Population Trend in Georgia

All statesGeneralists

Painted Bunting in Georgia has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-63%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Painted Bunting Trends in GeorgiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Painted Bunting has fallen sharply in Georgia: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Painted Bunting Population Forecast in Georgia

If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Georgia is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±126.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±126.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Georgia is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±126.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.001.3
20260.000.001.3
20270.000.001.3
20280.000.001.3
20290.000.001.3

Painted Bunting Survey Routes in Georgia

Routes recording Painted Bunting in Georgia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wadley2220241995
Dover1520241977
Jacksonboro920241967
White Hill820242019
Colonels Island620232005
Guyton419931966
Keller419941975
Millen420242014
Finleyson320242011
Pineora 2320242024
Ware Co319871986
Darien220191966
Baxley220181978
Deepstep220222013
Big Oak220242007
Union220232018
Harrietts Bl120151970
Everett City120161976
Lyons119671967
Wrightsville120241966
Hawkinsville119801980
Lincolnton119911986
Newton120192019
Riceboro120181995
Grovetown119881979

Painted Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasfloridakansaslouisianamississippimissourinew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.