BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Painted Bunting Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Painted Bunting in New Mexico has surged: up 228% on the route-weighted index since 2005.

+228%Since 2005TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
19YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Painted Bunting Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Painted Bunting in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Painted Bunting Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in New Mexico is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.03–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in New Mexico is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.03–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.20012030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.060.020.10
20270.060.020.10
20280.060.020.10
20290.060.020.10
20300.070.030.10

Painted Bunting Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Painted Bunting in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bitter Lake320252001
Queen120142013
Logan120192019
Cooley Lake120252016
Variadero120172003

Painted Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasfloridageorgiakansaslouisianamississippimissourinorth-carolinaoklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.