BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Painted Bunting In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGeneralists

Painted Bunting in Central Hardwoods has increased: up 35% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+35%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Painted Bunting in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 95% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.17–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+95%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.30Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–0.4495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 95% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.17–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.290.150.42
20260.290.160.42
20270.290.160.43
20280.300.170.43
20290.300.170.44

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Painted Bunting in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RussellARKANSAS102021
ColcordOKLAHOMA102022
LurtonARKANSAS82008
FultonARKANSAS72024
FarwellARKANSAS52018
RudyARKANSAS42024
BaronOKLAHOMA42023
AvocaARKANSAS32006
RupertARKANSAS22024
PulaskiMISSOURI22017
RueterMISSOURI22022
ZionARKANSAS12024
ComptonARKANSAS11970
CentertonARKANSAS12024
Ravenden SpringsARKANSAS12015
MarshallARKANSAS12021
Ozark NfARKANSAS12022
CassvilleMISSOURI12013
HandleyMISSOURI12008
DiamondMISSOURI12017
Rueter 2MISSOURI12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.