BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Painted Bunting In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Painted Bunting in Central Hardwoods has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-21%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Painted Bunting in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Painted Bunting In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 242% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.15–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+242%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.29Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–0.4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±106.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 242% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.15–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.280.140.42
20270.280.140.42
20280.280.140.43
20290.290.150.43
20300.290.150.43

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Painted Bunting in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RussellARKANSAS102021
ColcordOKLAHOMA102022
LurtonARKANSAS82008
FarwellARKANSAS52018
BaronOKLAHOMA42023
FultonARKANSAS32025
AvocaARKANSAS32006
RupertARKANSAS22024
PulaskiMISSOURI22017
RueterMISSOURI22022
ZionARKANSAS12025
ComptonARKANSAS11970
CentertonARKANSAS12024
YellvilleARKANSAS12025
Ravenden SpringsARKANSAS12015
MarshallARKANSAS12021
RudyARKANSAS12025
Ozark NfARKANSAS12022
CassvilleMISSOURI12025
HandleyMISSOURI12008
DiamondMISSOURI12017
Rueter 2MISSOURI12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.