BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Painted Bunting In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

Painted Bunting in Gulf Coastal Prairie has held roughly steady: up 2% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+2%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Painted Bunting in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Painted Bunting In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.0 (95% range 2.3–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–7.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.0 (95% range 2.3–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.02.37.7
20265.02.37.7
20275.02.37.7
20285.02.37.7
20295.02.37.7

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Painted Bunting in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
McfaddinTEXAS442016
Goliad PrairieTEXAS302016
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS252024
Loyola BeachTEXAS172009
LafitteLOUISIANA161991
Bayside 3TEXAS162024
Bayside 2TEXAS142004
GlencoeLOUISIANA112018
EstherLOUISIANA112024
BaysideTEXAS112003
MamouLOUISIANA101982
MauriceLOUISIANA92024
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA92011
PetronilaTEXAS82024
JuniorLOUISIANA71991
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA62019
WinnieTEXAS62024
Moon Lake 2TEXAS62024
VanderbiltTEXAS51976
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA42024
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA42024
Forked IslandLOUISIANA42024
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA42011
Rock IslandTEXAS42024
Grand IsleLOUISIANA32011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.