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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Painted Bunting In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Painted Bunting in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has declined: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-25%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
97Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Painted Bunting in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Painted Bunting In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 53% by 2030 — from 5.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 1.1–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-53%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 53% by 2030 — from 5.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 1.1–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.91.24.5
20272.81.24.4
20282.81.14.4
20292.71.14.4
20302.71.14.3

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Painted Bunting in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PhillipsOKLAHOMA452025
MatoyOKLAHOMA402025
PocolaOKLAHOMA332016
SandbluffOKLAHOMA312025
AthensTEXAS292025
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA262021
ChandlerTEXAS242004
IndianolaOKLAHOMA232025
McalesterOKLAHOMA201991
LockesburgARKANSAS162019
Liberty HillTEXAS152025
Easton 2TEXAS152025
Mt. SelmanTEXAS142025
Coal HillARKANSAS122023
Smyrna 2TEXAS122025
De QuincyLOUISIANA112019
Neches BithTEXAS112017
EastonLOUISIANA91990
BlancoOKLAHOMA92016
Princeton 2ARKANSAS82022
WechesTEXAS82025
AshdownARKANSAS72023
DerryLOUISIANA71989
Lake CoveLOUISIANA72018
Union HillTEXAS72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.