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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Painted Bunting In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGeneralists

Painted Bunting in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has declined: down 44% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-44%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Painted Bunting in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 3.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.0–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 3.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.0–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.71.24.2
20262.61.24.1
20272.61.14.1
20282.51.14.0
20292.51.04.0

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Painted Bunting in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PocolaOKLAHOMA332016
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA262021
SandbluffOKLAHOMA251995
AthensTEXAS252024
PhillipsOKLAHOMA242008
ChandlerTEXAS242004
IndianolaOKLAHOMA212024
McalesterOKLAHOMA201991
MatoyOKLAHOMA202000
LockesburgARKANSAS162019
NatchezLOUISIANA142024
Coal HillARKANSAS122023
De QuincyLOUISIANA112019
Easton 2TEXAS112024
Neches BithTEXAS112017
EastonLOUISIANA91990
LongstreetLOUISIANA92023
BlancoOKLAHOMA92016
Liberty HillTEXAS92023
Princeton 2ARKANSAS82022
Smyrna 2TEXAS82023
AshdownARKANSAS72023
DerryLOUISIANA71989
Lake CoveLOUISIANA72018
Union HillTEXAS72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.