BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Painted Bunting In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

Painted Bunting in Peninsular Florida has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-81%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Painted Bunting has collapsed in Peninsular Florida: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±251.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±251.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±251.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.070.000.50
20240.070.000.49
20250.060.000.49
20260.060.000.48
20270.060.000.48

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Painted Bunting in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
St AugustineFLORIDA21980
ScottsmoorFLORIDA22015
KenansvilleFLORIDA21990
San AntonioFLORIDA12019
Ft MccoyFLORIDA11987
DeanvilleFLORIDA12012
St LucieFLORIDA12017
Indiantown 2FLORIDA12022
Merritt IslFLORIDA12004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.