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Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Painted Bunting In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertForest birds

Painted Bunting in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+80%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Painted Bunting has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Painted Bunting In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 5.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 1.4–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–6.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 5.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 1.4–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.81.36.2
20273.81.36.3
20283.81.46.3
20293.91.46.3
20303.91.46.3

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Painted Bunting in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Devils R CynTEXAS432025
ComstockTEXAS362025
OzonaTEXAS332022
Ozona 2TEXAS302025
PumpvilleTEXAS232025
LongfellowTEXAS192025
LangtryTEXAS192000
CastolonTEXAS72025
Ft. StocktonTEXAS72025
ToyahvaleTEXAS62025
GirvinTEXAS52025
Coyanda DrawTEXAS52025
MarathonTEXAS42025
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO32025
Delaware CrkTEXAS22014
Casa PiedraTEXAS22025
PresidioTEXAS22023
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS22008
Ft. DavisTEXAS22023
QueenNEW-MEXICO12014
Hot SpringsTEXAS12009
Black GapTEXAS12021
ShafterTEXAS11977
AltudaTEXAS12023
CornudasTEXAS12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.