BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Painted Bunting In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Painted Bunting in Chihuahuan Desert has risen sharply: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+74%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Painted Bunting has risen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Painted Bunting In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 5.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 1.3–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Painted Bunting in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 5.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 1.3–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.71.26.1
20263.71.26.1
20273.71.26.2
20283.71.36.2
20293.71.36.2

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Painted Bunting in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LongfellowTEXAS562024
Devils R CynTEXAS452024
ComstockTEXAS442023
OzonaTEXAS332022
PumpvilleTEXAS312024
LangtryTEXAS192000
Coyanda DrawTEXAS122024
GirvinTEXAS112024
ToyahvaleTEXAS52024
CastolonTEXAS42018
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO22023
Delaware CrkTEXAS22014
PresidioTEXAS22023
Ft. StocktonTEXAS22024
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS22008
Ft. DavisTEXAS22023
QueenNEW-MEXICO12014
Hot SpringsTEXAS12009
Black GapTEXAS12021
ShafterTEXAS11977
AltudaTEXAS12023
CornudasTEXAS12006
Casa PiedraTEXAS12023
Bear MtnTEXAS12024
Sierra BlancTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.