BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bachman's Sparrow Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGeneralists

Bachman's Sparrow in Arkansas has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-56%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bachman's Sparrow Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bachman's Sparrow has fallen sharply in Arkansas: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Bachman's Sparrow Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Bachman's Sparrow in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2022, near 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±223.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2022TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2022 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±223.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bachman's Sparrow in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2022, near 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±223.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672022
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20180.100.000.21
20190.100.000.21
20200.100.000.21
20210.090.000.21
20220.090.000.21

Bachman's Sparrow Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Bachman's Sparrow in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Locust Bayou220011967
Four Lakes220011994
Crows219841967
Blakely219861982
Rupert219671967
Princeton220112009
Old Milo119961974
Ramsey119811971
Stamps119881977
Hope119881988
Ashdown119951995
Magazine Mtn120172017
Poyen119901969
Hollywood120141972
Waldron120142002
Fulton119751968
Nance119981994
Poyen 2120092009
Dry Fork120032003

Bachman's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamafloridageorgiakentuckylouisianamississippimissourinorth-carolinaohiooklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.