BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bachman's Sparrow Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

Bachman's Sparrow in Florida has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-48%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bachman's Sparrow Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bachman's Sparrow in Florida. See the full index history below.

Bachman's Sparrow Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Bachman's Sparrow in Florida is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bachman's Sparrow in Florida is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.003.0
20261.40.003.0
20271.30.002.9
20281.30.002.9
20291.30.002.8

Bachman's Sparrow Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Bachman's Sparrow in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Citrus5120242010
Blackwater2820241987
Croom1720241987
Kenansville1520241974
Bloxham1420221987
Belmont1120051966
Babcock Rnch1119901988
Olustee1120221992
Nixon919861985
Bristol920231986
Eglin A.F.B.820111997
Oak Grove720111967
Hilliard720241966
Alligator Pt720241987
Ocala720241987
Dowling Park620231987
Dupuis W.E.A620241994
Alturas519861971
Port St Joe420111967
Belmore420231966
Indiantown419871966
Palmdale420091987
Blountstown320231966
Mabel319841983
Miller Xrds320111988

Bachman's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasgeorgiakentuckylouisianamississippimissourinorth-carolinaohiooklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.