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Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bachman's Sparrow Population Trend in Florida

All statesForest birds

Bachman's Sparrow in Florida has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-48%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bachman's Sparrow Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bachman's Sparrow in Florida. See the full index history below.

Bachman's Sparrow Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Bachman's Sparrow in Florida is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-46%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bachman's Sparrow in Florida is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.003.0
20271.40.003.0
20281.40.003.0
20291.30.002.9
20301.30.002.9

Bachman's Sparrow Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Bachman's Sparrow in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Citrus3220252010
Blackwater1920251987
Olustee1220251992
Belmont1120051966
Babcock Rnch1119901988
Bloxham1020251987
Nixon919861985
Bristol920231986
Miccosukee820251966
Kenansville820251974
Croom820251987
Dupuis W.E.A820251994
Eglin A.F.B.820111997
Oak Grove720111967
Hilliard720241966
Alligator Pt720241987
Alturas519861971
Hildreth 2520252011
Green Swamp520251987
Webb520251990
Port St Joe420111967
Belmore420231966
Indiantown419871966
Palmdale420091987
Ocala420251987

Bachman's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasgeorgiakentuckylouisianamississippimissourinorth-carolinaohiooklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.