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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bachman's Sparrow Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Bachman's Sparrow in North Carolina has held roughly steady: down 7% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-7%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bachman's Sparrow Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bachman's Sparrow in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Bachman's Sparrow Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Bachman's Sparrow in North Carolina is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.01–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bachman's Sparrow in North Carolina is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.01–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.010.17
20260.090.010.17
20270.090.010.17
20280.090.010.17
20290.090.010.17

Bachman's Sparrow Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Bachman's Sparrow in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Broad Creek720241994
Raeford220191992
Cherryville219681968
Lake Surf220242006
Linville219811981
Shallotte119881977
Wards Corner119671966
Supply119971993
Sheep Ridge119971997
Jamesville119941994
Montague119921992
Hamlet119981998
Green Swamp120062002
Arcola119851972

Bachman's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasfloridageorgiakentuckylouisianamississippimissouriohiooklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.