BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bachman's Sparrow Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesGeneralists

Bachman's Sparrow in Oklahoma has surged: up 208% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

+208%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bachman's Sparrow Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bachman's Sparrow has surged in Oklahoma: up 208% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

Bachman's Sparrow Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Bachman's Sparrow in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 105% by 2028 — from 0.17 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.17–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+105%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–0.5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bachman's Sparrow in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 105% by 2028 — from 0.17 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.17–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.320.140.49
20250.320.150.50
20260.330.150.51
20270.340.160.51
20280.340.170.52

Bachman's Sparrow Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Bachman's Sparrow in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pushmataha520231994
Blanco319941972
Big Cedar219861986
Ouachita Nf220182017
Mt. Herman120211999
Hee Mountain120132013
Bartlesville120002000

Bachman's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasfloridageorgiakentuckylouisianamississippimissourinorth-carolinaohiosouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.