BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bachman's Sparrow Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Bachman's Sparrow in Texas has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-83%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bachman's Sparrow Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bachman's Sparrow has collapsed in Texas: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Bachman's Sparrow Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Bachman's Sparrow in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2023, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±727.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2023TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2023 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±727.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bachman's Sparrow in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2023, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±727.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682023
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20190.000.000.09
20200.000.000.09
20210.000.000.09
20220.000.000.09
20230.000.000.09

Bachman's Sparrow Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Bachman's Sparrow in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Morton919771972
Fred220001995
Athens219841968
Town Bluff119801975
Livingston119811971
New Waverly119761969
Lydia119751973
Diboll119811976
Caledonia119921972
Bon Wier119971997
Stowell119811981
Crossroads120182018
Chandler119851968
Chandler 2120102010

Bachman's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasfloridageorgiakentuckylouisianamississippimissourinorth-carolinaohiooklahomasouth-carolinatennesseevirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.