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Species · Georgia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bachman's Sparrow Population Trend in Georgia

All statesGeneralists

Bachman's Sparrow in Georgia has surged: up 162% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+162%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bachman's Sparrow Trends in GeorgiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bachman's Sparrow has surged in Georgia: up 162% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Bachman's Sparrow Population Forecast in Georgia

If the recent trend holds, Bachman's Sparrow in Georgia is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 0.80 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.50 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.50Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bachman's Sparrow in Georgia is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 0.80 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.50 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.500.001.0
20260.500.001.0
20270.500.001.0
20280.500.001.0
20290.500.001.0

Bachman's Sparrow Survey Routes in Georgia

Routes recording Bachman's Sparrow in Georgia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Needmore1019831977
Weber1020242014
Boston920241976
Philema720242011
Newton620241982
Piedmont Nwr520031991
Guyton519891983
Glenmore520242013
Grovetown419881981
Cuthbert320221971
Forsyth319941973
Waycross319841970
Henderson320211973
Rutledge319811978
Big Oak320232018
Shiloh320242015
Minter Tweed320232021
Dickey320162005
Okefenokee219921974
Stockton220241977
Fowlstown220131969
Courthouse220241970
Wrightsville220232008
Lacross219921984
Linwood219851970

Bachman's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasfloridakentuckylouisianamississippimissourinorth-carolinaohiooklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.