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Species · Georgia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bachman's Sparrow Population Trend in Georgia

All statesForest birds

Bachman's Sparrow in Georgia has surged: up 187% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+187%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bachman's Sparrow Trends in GeorgiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bachman's Sparrow has surged in Georgia: up 187% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Bachman's Sparrow Population Forecast in Georgia

If the recent trend holds, Bachman's Sparrow in Georgia is projected to fall about 53% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.55 (95% range 0.01–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-53%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.55Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bachman's Sparrow in Georgia is projected to fall about 53% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.55 (95% range 0.01–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.550.001.1
20270.550.001.1
20280.550.001.1
20290.550.001.1
20300.550.011.1

Bachman's Sparrow Survey Routes in Georgia

Routes recording Bachman's Sparrow in Georgia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Philema1520252011
Boston1020251976
Needmore1019831977
Glenmore820252013
Newton720251982
Weber720252014
Courthouse620251970
Piedmont Nwr520031991
Guyton519891983
Henderson420251973
Grovetown419881981
Cuthbert320221971
Forsyth319941973
Waycross319841970
Rutledge319811978
Millen320252025
Minter Tweed320252021
Bethany320252017
Dickey320162005
Barges320252011
Okefenokee219921974
Stockton220251977
Fowlstown220131969
Wrightsville220232008
Lacross219921984

Bachman's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasfloridakentuckylouisianamississippimissourinorth-carolinaohiooklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.