BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bachman's Sparrow Population Trend in Alabama

All statesGeneralists

Bachman's Sparrow in Alabama has held roughly steady: down 3% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-3%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bachman's Sparrow Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bachman's Sparrow in Alabama. See the full index history below.

Bachman's Sparrow Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Bachman's Sparrow in Alabama is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bachman's Sparrow in Alabama is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.140.000.36
20260.140.000.35
20270.140.000.35
20280.140.000.35
20290.130.000.35

Bachman's Sparrow Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Bachman's Sparrow in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grangeburg819951973
Carrollton819931993
Sprague320001971
Hillsboro219861986
Valhermoso Spgs219811981
Greensport219981966
Mt Olive219941994
Elberta219911990
Lanett220031966
Cottonton220241966
Brantley219671967
Mclellan220241966
Borden Sprng219981998
Perdido220242021
Bay Minette220242000
Latham 2120242005
Dauphin Is 2119931991
Smyer Lake119661966
Billingsley119661966
Warrior Std120241967
Borden Springs 2120242001
Nixburg 2120092009
Castleberry120131966
Foley119811969
Blocton119731970

Bachman's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.