BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bachman's Sparrow Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesGeneralists

Bachman's Sparrow in Mississippi has risen sharply: up 50% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+50%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bachman's Sparrow Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bachman's Sparrow has risen sharply in Mississippi: up 50% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Bachman's Sparrow Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Bachman's Sparrow in Mississippi is projected to fall about 100% by 2027 — from 0.14 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±266.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±266.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bachman's Sparrow in Mississippi is projected to fall about 100% by 2027 — from 0.14 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±266.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.040.002.3
20240.020.002.3
20250.000.002.3
20260.000.002.3
20270.000.002.3

Bachman's Sparrow Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Bachman's Sparrow in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Diberville3119871979
Latimer 2420222022
Sandy Creek219931993
Lake Mary119881988
Latimer120191988
Lucien119871974
Walthall119871987
Duck Hill119741970
Mt Carmel119871987
Embry119911991
Poplarville119781972
Corinth119881973
Tupelo119781978
Necaise120021982
Scooba119821972
Duffee119741974
Fontainbleau119781968
Benndale119901979

Bachman's Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasfloridageorgiakentuckylouisianamissourinorth-carolinaohiooklahomasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.