BirdAnalyst
Guild · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Forest Birds In North Carolina

All statesNorth Carolina

49 species in this guild. As a group they are +19%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Forest Birds In North Carolina Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.6 (95% range 3.1–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.1–6.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.6 (95% range 3.1–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.53.15.9
20264.53.15.9
20274.53.16.0
20284.53.16.0
20294.63.16.0

Member Species In North Carolina

Forest birds species in North Carolina.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Golden-winged WarblerParulidae-83%
Yellow WarblerParulidae-78%
Red-cockaded WoodpeckerPicidae-72%
Wood ThrushTurdidae-68%
Cerulean WarblerParulidae-65%
Kentucky WarblerParulidae-63%
Prairie WarblerParulidae-53%
Winter WrenTroglodytidae-50%
Common YellowthroatParulidae-46%
American RedstartParulidae-39%
Red-headed WoodpeckerPicidae-33%
Warbling VireoVireonidae-26%
Chestnut-sided WarblerParulidae-11%
Canada WarblerParulidae+6%
Golden-crowned KingletRegulidae+7%
Brown CreeperCerthiidae+13%
Red-eyed VireoVireonidae+19%
Black-capped ChickadeeParidae+26%
American RobinTurdidae+29%
Hooded WarblerParulidae+40%
Northern ParulaParulidae+46%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae+51%
Red-bellied WoodpeckerPicidae+52%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae+60%
Northern House WrenTroglodytidae+72%
Carolina ChickadeeParidae+78%
Yellow-throated WarblerParulidae+91%
Blackburnian WarblerParulidae+95%
Yellow-throated VireoVireonidae+97%
Tufted TitmouseParidae+97%
Brown-headed NuthatchSittidae+127%
Worm-eating WarblerParulidae+129%
Pine WarblerParulidae+130%
White-eyed VireoVireonidae+155%
Black-and-white WarblerParulidae+157%
VeeryTurdidae+162%
Carolina WrenTroglodytidae+171%
OvenbirdParulidae+192%
Pileated WoodpeckerPicidae+198%
Red-breasted NuthatchSittidae+209%
Prothonotary WarblerParulidae+308%
Louisiana WaterthrushParulidae+385%
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae+410%
Eastern BluebirdTurdidae+413%
Black-throated Green WarblerParulidae+511%
Swainson's WarblerParulidae+624%
Blue-gray GnatcatcherPolioptilidae+697%
Blue-headed VireoVireonidae11×
Black-throated Blue WarblerParulidae13×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.