BirdAnalyst
Guild · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Forest Birds In North Carolina

All statesNorth Carolina

73 species in this guild. As a group they are -12%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Forest Birds In North Carolina Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.2 (95% range 3.8–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-0%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.8–6.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.2 (95% range 3.8–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.23.86.5
20275.23.86.5
20285.23.86.5
20295.23.86.5
20305.23.86.5

Member Species In North Carolina

Forest birds species in North Carolina.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Black-billed CuckooCuculidae-82%
Golden-winged WarblerParulidae-82%
Rose-breasted GrosbeakCardinalidae-81%
Yellow WarblerParulidae-78%
Field SparrowPasserellidae-74%
Painted BuntingCardinalidae-72%
Cerulean WarblerParulidae-65%
Wood ThrushTurdidae-65%
Kentucky WarblerParulidae-63%
Blue JayCorvidae-56%
Eastern TowheePasserellidae-52%
Winter WrenTroglodytidae-51%
Prairie WarblerParulidae-50%
Red-cockaded WoodpeckerPicidae-50%
American RedstartParulidae-46%
Common YellowthroatParulidae-44%
Baltimore OrioleIcteridae-40%
Warbling VireoVireonidae-36%
Orchard OrioleIcteridae-31%
Gray CatbirdMimidae-29%
Red-headed WoodpeckerPicidae-28%
Brown ThrasherMimidae-25%
Black-capped ChickadeeParidae-21%
Indigo BuntingCardinalidae-20%
Yellow-breasted ChatIcteriidae-19%
Golden-crowned KingletRegulidae-17%
Northern CardinalCardinalidae-13%
Yellow-billed CuckooCuculidae-9%
Canada WarblerParulidae-7%
Bachman's SparrowPasserellidae+9%
Chestnut-sided WarblerParulidae+10%
Summer TanagerCardinalidae+29%
Red-eyed VireoVireonidae+30%
American RobinTurdidae+32%
Brown CreeperCerthiidae+37%
Ruby-throated HummingbirdTrochilidae+41%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae+47%
Blue GrosbeakCardinalidae+52%
Hooded WarblerParulidae+52%
Chipping SparrowPasserellidae+55%
Red-bellied WoodpeckerPicidae+56%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae+63%
Northern ParulaParulidae+63%
Blackburnian WarblerParulidae+65%
Yellow-bellied SapsuckerPicidae+66%
Song SparrowPasserellidae+71%
Carolina ChickadeeParidae+83%
Northern House WrenTroglodytidae+84%
Scarlet TanagerCardinalidae+98%
Yellow-throated WarblerParulidae+108%
Yellow-throated VireoVireonidae+112%
Tufted TitmouseParidae+116%
Worm-eating WarblerParulidae+124%
VeeryTurdidae+125%
Brown-headed NuthatchSittidae+130%
Pine WarblerParulidae+136%
White-eyed VireoVireonidae+161%
Carolina WrenTroglodytidae+167%
Red-breasted NuthatchSittidae+175%
Black-and-white WarblerParulidae+189%
Pileated WoodpeckerPicidae+204%
OvenbirdParulidae+210%
American GoldfinchFringillidae+294%
Cedar WaxwingBombycillidae+319%
Prothonotary WarblerParulidae+325%
Eastern BluebirdTurdidae+392%
Louisiana WaterthrushParulidae+447%
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae+475%
Black-throated Green WarblerParulidae+540%
Blue-gray GnatcatcherPolioptilidae+735%
Swainson's WarblerParulidae+860%
Blue-headed VireoVireonidae+899%
Black-throated Blue WarblerParulidae12×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.