BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-crowned Sparrow Population Analysis

PasserellidaeForest birdsZonotrichia leucophrys

White-crowned Sparrow has surged: up 365% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+365%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
598RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the White-crowned Sparrow

The White-crowned Sparrow (Zonotrichia leucophrys) is a North American member of the New World Sparrows (Passerellidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
4.5–7.5 in long (12–19 cm) — a small songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 598 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 11 states, most concentrated in the Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Family
Passerellidae · Forest birds

Notable White-crowned Sparrow TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-crowned Sparrow has surged in surveyed states: up 365% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

White-crowned Sparrow Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-crowned Sparrow is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.8 (95% range 1.5–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-crowned Sparrow is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.8 (95% range 1.5–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.71.42.1
20271.71.42.1
20281.81.42.1
20291.81.52.1
20301.81.52.1

Where the White-crowned Sparrow Is Detected

BBS routes recording White-crowned Sparrow, sized by most recent count.

White-crowned Sparrow Population Trend by State

White-crowned Sparrow population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaska-18%1976106
California-55%197062
Colorado+557%197075
Idaho-21%197138
Montana+82%197040
Nevada-43%197316
New Mexico-67%19836
Oregon-48%197077
Utah+530%197054
Washington+0%197065
Wyoming+52%197059

White-crowned Sparrow Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

White-crowned Sparrow population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 2+80%198720
BCR 3+219%19954
BCR 4-10%197670
Northern Pacific Rainforest-29%1970118
Great Basin+111%197094
Northern Rockies+24%1970119
Sierra Nevada-82%197317
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau11×1970125
Badlands and Prairies+175%19827
Coastal California-86%197017

White-crowned Sparrow Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 365% since 1970.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.