BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-crowned Sparrow In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

White-crowned Sparrow in Northern Pacific Rainforest has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-29%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
118Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for White-crowned Sparrow in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

White-crowned Sparrow In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-crowned Sparrow in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 2.7–10.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–10.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-crowned Sparrow in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 2.7–10.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.73.010
20276.62.910
20286.52.810
20296.42.810
20306.32.710.0

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording White-crowned Sparrow in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sheep MtnALASKA982025
Port AngelesWASHINGTON782025
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA612025
Hazel CampOREGON612022
Warm BeachWASHINGTON422017
RainierWASHINGTON382025
CanbyOREGON362025
McchordWASHINGTON362015
CoquilleOREGON352025
GarfieldOREGON302025
WedderburnOREGON282025
Rio DellCALIFORNIA272012
HauserOREGON251985
ScioOREGON252025
EverettWASHINGTON242025
Elmendorf (Short)ALASKA231985
CougarWASHINGTON232023
Bay ViewWASHINGTON232017
SvensenOREGON221992
GlasgowOREGON222025
DaytonOREGON202025
DeceptionWASHINGTON202018
SalemOREGON192025
MukilteoWASHINGTON192025
Vashon Is.WASHINGTON192025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.