BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-crowned Sparrow In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

White-crowned Sparrow in Northern Pacific Rainforest has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-34%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
117Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for White-crowned Sparrow in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

White-crowned Sparrow In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-crowned Sparrow in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 8.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 2.6–9.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–9.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-crowned Sparrow in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 8.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 2.6–9.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.52.910.0
20266.42.89.9
20276.32.89.8
20286.22.79.7
20296.12.69.6

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording White-crowned Sparrow in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sheep MtnALASKA732017
Port AngelesWASHINGTON672024
Hazel CampOREGON612022
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA542024
RainierWASHINGTON442019
Warm BeachWASHINGTON422017
Vashon Is.WASHINGTON412024
McchordWASHINGTON362015
CoquilleOREGON312024
Rio DellCALIFORNIA272012
EverettWASHINGTON272024
DaytonOREGON262024
HauserOREGON251985
GarfieldOREGON252023
SaladoOREGON242024
Elmendorf (Short)ALASKA231985
CougarWASHINGTON232023
Bay ViewWASHINGTON232017
WedderburnOREGON222024
SvensenOREGON221992
MukilteoWASHINGTON222024
ScioOREGON202024
DeceptionWASHINGTON202018
GlasgowOREGON192024
IssaquahWASHINGTON181987

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.