BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-crowned Sparrow In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

White-crowned Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

11×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
125Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-crowned Sparrow has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

White-crowned Sparrow In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-crowned Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.9 (95% range 3.5–8.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–8.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-crowned Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.9 (95% range 3.5–8.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.63.28.0
20275.73.28.1
20285.83.38.2
20295.83.48.3
20305.93.58.3

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording White-crowned Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stillwater Pass 2COLORADO772025
Ryan ParkWYOMING502025
Willow PeakCOLORADO472025
TincupCOLORADO402025
Heeney 2COLORADO362025
Skyline DrivUTAH362025
Stillwater PassCOLORADO352009
SoapstoneUTAH342025
CastletonCOLORADO312025
Lake CityCOLORADO312003
Steamboat L.COLORADO312025
Navajo LakeUTAH302025
Red CliffCOLORADO292025
FlattopsCOLORADO292025
Ragged Mtn.COLORADO272025
YampaCOLORADO262023
Dunckley PasCOLORADO252025
Weston Pass 2COLORADO252025
Heber Mtn.UTAH242025
Wasatch NfUTAH232024
Mount EvansCOLORADO222024
GooseberryUTAH222025
HeeneyCOLORADO212019
Buffalo ParkCOLORADO202025
Weston PassCOLORADO192000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.