BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-crowned Sparrow In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

White-crowned Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 857% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+857%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
123Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-crowned Sparrow has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 857% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

White-crowned Sparrow In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-crowned Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 3.4–8.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–8.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-crowned Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 3.4–8.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.53.17.9
20265.63.18.0
20275.73.28.1
20285.83.38.2
20295.83.48.3

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording White-crowned Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stillwater Pass 2COLORADO632024
GooseberryUTAH492024
Buffalo ParkCOLORADO382023
SoapstoneUTAH382024
Stillwater PassCOLORADO352009
Navajo LakeUTAH352024
Steamboat L.COLORADO342024
Ragged Mtn.COLORADO342019
Willow PeakCOLORADO322021
Lake CityCOLORADO312003
CastletonCOLORADO292024
YampaCOLORADO262023
Red CliffCOLORADO262024
Weston Pass 2COLORADO262024
Skyline DrivUTAH262016
Heber Mtn.UTAH262024
Ryan ParkWYOMING262023
Wasatch NfUTAH232024
Dunckley PasCOLORADO222024
Mount EvansCOLORADO222024
HeeneyCOLORADO212019
TincupCOLORADO202024
WaldenCOLORADO192024
Lost LakeCOLORADO192024
Weston PassCOLORADO192000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.