BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-crowned Sparrow Population Trend in Utah

All statesForest birds

White-crowned Sparrow in Utah has surged: up 530% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+530%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-crowned Sparrow Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-crowned Sparrow has surged in Utah: up 530% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

White-crowned Sparrow Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, White-crowned Sparrow in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.0 (95% range 1.7–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-crowned Sparrow in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.0 (95% range 1.7–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.91.54.2
20272.91.64.2
20282.91.64.2
20293.01.64.3
20303.01.74.3

White-crowned Sparrow Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording White-crowned Sparrow in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Skyline Driv3620251986
Soapstone3420251992
Navajo Lake3020251970
Heber Mtn.2420251996
Wasatch Nf2320241988
Gooseberry2220251994
Uintah Nf1919941987
Lost Cr. Res1420181995
Logan Canyon1420191997
Ferron1320252000
Beaver720251971
Richfield720181994
Beck 2720251990
Monticello620002000
Woodruff620252002
Beck519871968
Grizzly Rdge520251993
La Sal 3420242007
Moon Lake 2220152015
Castleton219751975
Red Spur Mtn.220211997
Hite219971997
Hill Creek219931993
La Sal219931993
Kamas220232017

White-crowned Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.