BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-crowned Sparrow Population Trend in Alaska

All statesGeneralists

White-crowned Sparrow in Alaska has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-28%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
106Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-crowned Sparrow Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for White-crowned Sparrow in Alaska. See the full index history below.

White-crowned Sparrow Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, White-crowned Sparrow in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 22 (95% range 10–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10–3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-crowned Sparrow in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 22 (95% range 10–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025221134
2026221034
2027221034
2028221034
2029221034

White-crowned Sparrow Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording White-crowned Sparrow in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Monahan17520211983
Cantwell16220211982
Savage13720241986
Delta11220241995
Toklat9620241982
Maclaren7820241982
Mt. Fairplay7720241993
Sheep Mtn7320171983
Eagle7220241982
Lake Louise7220141993
Dietrich Cmp6320241993
Caribou Mtn.6220241993
Kuskulana5720241990
King Salmon4820241993
Circle4620241986
Chatanika R4620231968
Wasilla4419831983
Paxson Lake4419971991
Galbraith L.4420241993
Mccarthy Rd24220241989
Kanuti Lake4220242006
Chicken4020241992
Mcgrath4020221997
Kalifonsky3920231982
Coldfoot3920241994

White-crowned Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooregonutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.