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Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-crowned Sparrow Population Trend in Alaska

All statesForest birds

White-crowned Sparrow in Alaska has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-18%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
106Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-crowned Sparrow Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for White-crowned Sparrow in Alaska. See the full index history below.

White-crowned Sparrow Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, White-crowned Sparrow in Alaska is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 29 in 2025 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 11–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-crowned Sparrow in Alaska is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 29 in 2025 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 11–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026231135
2027231135
2028231134
2029231134
2030231134

White-crowned Sparrow Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording White-crowned Sparrow in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Delta11220241995
Sheep Mtn9820251983
Savage9820251986
Toklat9620241982
Maclaren9420251982
Cantwell8920251982
Dietrich Cmp7820251993
Caribou Mtn.7620251993
Lake Louise7520251993
Eagle7220251982
Monahan7120251983
Mt. Fairplay6720251993
Nabesna Road6420251989
Kuskulana6320251990
Chicken5720251992
Galbraith L.5020251993
Wasilla4419831983
Paxson Lake4419971991
Kotzebue4320252001
Chatanika R4220251968
Seven Lakes4220251986
Kanuti Lake4220242006
Mcgrath4020221997
Mccarthy Rd23920251989
St. Mary'S3820141993

White-crowned Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooregonutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.