BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

White-crowned Sparrow In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinForest birds

White-crowned Sparrow in Great Basin has surged: up 111% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+111%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-crowned Sparrow has surged in Great Basin: up 111% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

White-crowned Sparrow In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-crowned Sparrow in Great Basin is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-crowned Sparrow in Great Basin is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.002.4
20271.20.002.4
20281.20.002.4
20291.20.002.4
20301.20.002.4

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording White-crowned Sparrow in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SnowdenWASHINGTON512025
KendallWASHINGTON512025
NewhalemWASHINGTON212025
LeavenworthWASHINGTON202024
L. WenatcheeWASHINGTON202025
Mt HoodOREGON142025
RonaldWASHINGTON112025
NighthawkWASHINGTON101992
Fish LakeOREGON92025
IndexWASHINGTON81971
OrdnanceOREGON71973
Dinner StaNEVADA61993
PaisleyOREGON62025
ConcreteWASHINGTON62025
LeadoreIDAHO52024
BridgeportCALIFORNIA41973
Deep SpringsCALIFORNIA42019
DuboisIDAHO41970
Magic MtnIDAHO42025
LakeviewOREGON42025
E. Mt. AdamsWASHINGTON42025
Calico SprNEVADA31973
Dobbin CreekNEVADA31996
Ruby ValleyNEVADA32001
BlitzenOREGON31980

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.