BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Golden-crowned Sparrow Population Analysis

PasserellidaeForest birdsZonotrichia atricapilla

Golden-crowned Sparrow has surged: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1982.

11×Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Golden-crowned Sparrow

The Golden-crowned Sparrow (Zonotrichia atricapilla) is a North American member of the New World Sparrows (Passerellidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
4.5–7.5 in long (12–19 cm) — a small songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 68 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 2 states, most concentrated in the BCR 4.
Family
Passerellidae · Forest birds

Notable Golden-crowned Sparrow TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Golden-crowned Sparrow. See the full index history below.

Golden-crowned Sparrow Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Sparrow is projected to rise about 77% by 2030 — from 0.13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.12–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+77%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–0.3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Sparrow is projected to rise about 77% by 2030 — from 0.13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.12–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.220.110.34
20270.230.110.34
20280.230.120.34
20290.230.120.34
20300.230.120.35

Where the Golden-crowned Sparrow Is Detected

BBS routes recording Golden-crowned Sparrow, sized by most recent count.

Golden-crowned Sparrow Population Trend by State

Golden-crowned Sparrow population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaska+239%198263
Washingtoninsufficient datan/a5

Golden-crowned Sparrow Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Golden-crowned Sparrow population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 2-29%198518
BCR 4+18%198230
Northern Pacific Rainforest+58%198416

Golden-crowned Sparrow Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 1003% since 1982.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.