BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-crowned Sparrow In BCR 2

All regionsBCR 2Generalists

Golden-crowned Sparrow in BCR 2 has edged down: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

-25%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Golden-crowned Sparrow in BCR 2. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Sparrow in BCR 2 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 32 (95% range 13–52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Sparrow in BCR 2 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 32 (95% range 13–52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025321352
2026321352
2027321352
2028321352
2029321352

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording Golden-crowned Sparrow in BCR 2.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NomeALASKA1022023
Cold BayALASKA752024
KodiakALASKA571984
DillinghamALASKA532019
ChiniakALASKA522024
Togiak RiverALASKA472005
Kodiak 2ALASKA372024
Salmon LakeALASKA352024
TellerALASKA352024
CouncilALASKA342024
Dillingham (Short)ALASKA331984
Goodnews BayALASKA252005
Cold Bay (Short)ALASKA91992
Katmai N.P.ALASKA62022
Kanektok RivALASKA52005
King SalmonALASKA32024
Cape NomeALASKA12024
St. Mary'SALASKA12002

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.