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Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Golden-crowned Sparrow In BCR 2

All regionsBCR 2Forest birds

Golden-crowned Sparrow in BCR 2 has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

-29%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Golden-crowned Sparrow in BCR 2. See the full index history below.

Golden-crowned Sparrow In BCR 2 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Sparrow in BCR 2 is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 28 in 2025 to a central estimate of 31 (95% range 12–51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Sparrow in BCR 2 is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 28 in 2025 to a central estimate of 31 (95% range 12–51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026321351
2027321351
2028321251
2029321251
2030311251

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording Golden-crowned Sparrow in BCR 2.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NomeALASKA1022023
Cold BayALASKA952025
KodiakALASKA571984
DillinghamALASKA532019
Togiak RiverALASKA472005
ChiniakALASKA372025
Salmon LakeALASKA352024
TellerALASKA352024
CouncilALASKA342024
Dillingham (Short)ALASKA331984
Kodiak 2ALASKA292025
Goodnews BayALASKA252005
Cold Bay (Short)ALASKA91992
Katmai N.P.ALASKA52025
Kanektok RivALASKA52005
King SalmonALASKA22025
Cape NomeALASKA12024
St. Mary'SALASKA12002

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.