BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-crowned Sparrow In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Generalists

Golden-crowned Sparrow in BCR 4 has held roughly steady: up 4% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

+4%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Golden-crowned Sparrow in BCR 4. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Sparrow in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.00–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Sparrow in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.00–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.30.005.0
20262.30.005.0
20272.30.005.0
20282.30.005.0
20292.30.005.0

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Golden-crowned Sparrow in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KachemakALASKA252024
HomerALASKA211982
ToklatALASKA182024
Hatcher PassALASKA162024
CohoeALASKA122023
Anchor RiverALASKA62024
Caribou Mtn.ALASKA62023
Seven LakesALASKA52023
SavageALASKA42024
MaclarenALASKA22023
KalifonskyALASKA22018
Pinoche Tral (Short)ALASKA21984
Paxson LakeALASKA21995
Nabesna RoadALASKA22024
EagleALASKA12024
CircleALASKA12018
ChistochinaALASKA12024
NorthwayALASKA12023
MonahanALASKA12000
Goose BayALASKA11975
Skilak LakeALASKA11982
Bear CreekALASKA11987
Swan Lake RdALASKA11995
PetersvilleALASKA12002
Mt. FairplayALASKA12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.