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Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Golden-crowned Sparrow In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Forest birds

Golden-crowned Sparrow in BCR 4 has edged up: up 18% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

+18%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Golden-crowned Sparrow in BCR 4. See the full index history below.

Golden-crowned Sparrow In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Sparrow in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 2.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.00–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Sparrow in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 2.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.00–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.40.005.0
20272.30.005.0
20282.30.005.0
20292.30.005.0
20302.30.004.9

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Golden-crowned Sparrow in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KachemakALASKA312025
Hatcher PassALASKA282025
HomerALASKA211982
ToklatALASKA182024
Lake LouiseALASKA132025
KalifonskyALASKA122025
CohoeALASKA122023
Anchor RiverALASKA92025
Caribou Mtn.ALASKA62023
SavageALASKA32025
MaclarenALASKA22025
Pinoche Tral (Short)ALASKA21984
Paxson LakeALASKA21995
Nabesna RoadALASKA22024
EagleALASKA12024
CircleALASKA12018
ChistochinaALASKA12024
NorthwayALASKA12023
MonahanALASKA12000
Goose BayALASKA11975
Skilak LakeALASKA11982
Bear CreekALASKA11987
Swan Lake RdALASKA11995
PetersvilleALASKA12002
Seven LakesALASKA12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.