BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-crowned Sparrow In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

Golden-crowned Sparrow in Northern Pacific Rainforest has risen sharply: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

+72%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden-crowned Sparrow has risen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Sparrow in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.14–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.69Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Sparrow in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.14–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.660.111.2
20260.670.121.2
20270.670.121.2
20280.680.131.2
20290.690.141.2

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Golden-crowned Sparrow in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Thompson PasALASKA622024
Moose PassALASKA341992
HopeALASKA152024
Alpenglow (Short)ALASKA72012
Thorne BayALASKA21990
YakutatALASKA22014
Zimovia StrtALASKA21988
SewardALASKA11992
CordovaALASKA11983
Sheep MtnALASKA12017
Mitkof IsleALASKA11990
Thorne Bay 2ALASKA12021
SkagwayALASKA12024
Kenai Lake (Short)ALASKA11984
CougarWASHINGTON11982
CamasWASHINGTON11984

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.