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Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Golden-crowned Sparrow Population Trend in Alaska

All statesForest birds

Golden-crowned Sparrow in Alaska has surged: up 239% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

+239%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Golden-crowned Sparrow Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden-crowned Sparrow has surged in Alaska: up 239% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Golden-crowned Sparrow Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Sparrow in Alaska is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 5.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.2 (95% range 3.1–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.1–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Sparrow in Alaska is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 5.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.2 (95% range 3.1–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.13.011
20277.23.011
20287.23.111
20297.23.111
20307.23.111

Golden-crowned Sparrow Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Golden-crowned Sparrow in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Nome10220231993
Cold Bay9520251993
Kodiak5719841983
Dillingham5320191993
Togiak River4720051994
Chiniak3720251985
Salmon Lake3520241993
Teller3520241993
Council3420241993
Thompson Pas3420251983
Moose Pass3419921983
Dillingham (Short)3319841984
Kachemak3120251986
Kodiak 22920251985
Hatcher Pass2820251982
Goodnews Bay2520051999
Homer2119821978
Toklat1820241982
Lake Louise1320252025
Kalifonsky1220251982
Cohoe1220232013
Cold Bay (Short)919921984
Anchor River920251983
Alpenglow (Short)720121994
Caribou Mtn.620231993

Golden-crowned Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

washington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.