BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-crowned Sparrow Population Trend in Alaska

All statesGeneralists

Golden-crowned Sparrow in Alaska has surged: up 240% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

+240%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Golden-crowned Sparrow Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden-crowned Sparrow has surged in Alaska: up 240% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Golden-crowned Sparrow Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Sparrow in Alaska is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 6.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.4 (95% range 3.3–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.3–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-crowned Sparrow in Alaska is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 6.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.4 (95% range 3.3–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.33.211
20267.43.211
20277.43.312
20287.43.312
20297.43.312

Golden-crowned Sparrow Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Golden-crowned Sparrow in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Nome10220231993
Cold Bay7520241993
Thompson Pas6220241983
Kodiak5719841983
Dillingham5320191993
Chiniak5220241985
Togiak River4720051994
Kodiak 23720241985
Salmon Lake3520241993
Teller3520241993
Council3420241993
Moose Pass3419921983
Dillingham (Short)3319841984
Kachemak2520241986
Goodnews Bay2520051999
Homer2119821978
Toklat1820241982
Hatcher Pass1620241982
Hope1520241985
Cohoe1220232013
Cold Bay (Short)919921984
Alpenglow (Short)720121994
Caribou Mtn.620231993
Katmai N.P.620221993
Anchor River620241983

Golden-crowned Sparrow Population Trend in Other States

washington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.