BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Audubon's Oriole

IcteridaeForest birdsIcterus graduacauda

Audubon's Oriole has no long-term trend on record.

n/aSince n/aTrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Audubon's Oriole

The Audubon's Oriole (Icterus graduacauda) is a North American member of the Blackbirds & Orioles (Icteridae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
6.5–17 in long (16–43 cm) — a small to medium songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 27 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 1 state, most concentrated in the Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Family
Icteridae · Forest birds

Notable Audubon's Oriole TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Audubon's Oriole. See the full index history below.

Audubon's Oriole Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Audubon's Oriole is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.01–0.02). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±132.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.0295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±132.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Audubon's Oriole is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.01–0.02). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±132.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.02
20260.010.000.02
20270.010.000.02
20280.010.010.02
20290.010.010.02

Where the Audubon's Oriole Is Detected

BBS routes recording Audubon's Oriole, sized by most recent count.

Audubon's Oriole Population Trend by State

Audubon's Oriole population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Texas+664%197027

Audubon's Oriole Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Audubon's Oriole population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Oaks and Prairies-24%20024
Tamaulipan Brushlands13×197022

Audubon's Oriole Conservation Status

Audubon's Oriole is tracked across BBS survey routes; no formal conservation-status flag is recorded here.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.