BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Audubon's Oriole Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Audubon's Oriole in Texas has surged: up 664% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+664%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Audubon's Oriole Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Audubon's Oriole has surged in Texas: up 664% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Audubon's Oriole Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Audubon's Oriole in Texas is projected to rise about 69% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.08–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±130.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+69%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±130.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Audubon's Oriole in Texas is projected to rise about 69% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.08–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±130.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.070.28
20260.180.070.28
20270.180.070.29
20280.180.080.29
20290.190.080.29

Audubon's Oriole Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Audubon's Oriole in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Encinal1120101970
Millett 2720242013
Laredo520191995
Millett520121996
Zapata419871974
Guerra420231988
San Ygnacio319721967
George West320241974
Sejita320242008
Catarina 3320232018
El Sauz320231993
Catarina 2320172011
Agua Nueva220231979
Campbellton220232000
Catarina220101995
Cavasara Cr.220122008
Rachal120161990
Kingsville120071982
Randado120221969
Mirando City120222018
Hobson120242012
Hondo120232021
Three Rivers120242000
Brite120062006
Encinal 2120242011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.