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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Audubon's Oriole Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Audubon's Oriole in Texas has surged: up 649% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+649%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Audubon's Oriole Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Audubon's Oriole in Texas. See the full index history below.

Audubon's Oriole Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Audubon's Oriole in Texas is projected to rise about 60% by 2030 — from 0.12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.08–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±144.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+60%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±144.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Audubon's Oriole in Texas is projected to rise about 60% by 2030 — from 0.12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.08–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±144.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.170.070.28
20270.180.070.28
20280.180.070.28
20290.180.080.29
20300.180.080.29

Audubon's Oriole Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Audubon's Oriole in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Encinal1120101970
Millett 2720242013
Encinal 2620252011
George West520251974
Laredo520191995
Millett520121996
Zapata419871974
Guerra420231988
San Ygnacio319721967
Hondo320252021
Sejita320242008
El Sauz320231993
Catarina 2320172011
Agua Nueva220231979
Campbellton220232000
Catarina220101995
Cavasara Cr.220122008
Dilley220252018
Rachal120161990
Kingsville120071982
Randado120221969
Mirando City120222018
Hobson120252012
Three Rivers120242000
Brite120062006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.