BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Audubon's Oriole In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsGeneralists

Audubon's Oriole in Tamaulipan Brushlands has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

13×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Audubon's Oriole has surged in Tamaulipan Brushlands: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Audubon's Oriole In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Audubon's Oriole in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 56% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.95–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±93.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+56%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.95–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±93.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Audubon's Oriole in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 56% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.95–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±93.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.80.812.8
20261.80.852.9
20271.90.882.9
20281.90.922.9
20291.90.953.0

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Audubon's Oriole in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EncinalTEXAS112010
Millett 2TEXAS72024
LaredoTEXAS52019
MillettTEXAS52012
ZapataTEXAS41987
GuerraTEXAS42023
San YgnacioTEXAS31972
George WestTEXAS32024
El SauzTEXAS32023
Catarina 2TEXAS32017
Catarina 3TEXAS32023
SejitaTEXAS32024
Agua NuevaTEXAS22023
CatarinaTEXAS22010
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS22012
RachalTEXAS12016
KingsvilleTEXAS12007
RandadoTEXAS12022
Mirando CityTEXAS12022
HondoTEXAS12023
DilleyTEXAS12024
Encinal 2TEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.