BirdAnalyst
Guild · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Forest Birds In South Dakota

All statesSouth Dakota

32 species in this guild. As a group they are +80%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Forest Birds In South Dakota Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.6 (95% range 1.8–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.6 (95% range 1.8–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.51.73.4
20262.51.73.4
20272.61.73.4
20282.61.83.4
20292.61.83.4

Member Species In South Dakota

Forest birds species in South Dakota.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Bell's VireoVireonidae-44%
Golden-crowned KingletRegulidae-42%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae-34%
Eastern BluebirdTurdidae-31%
VeeryTurdidae-30%
Red-eyed VireoVireonidae-26%
OvenbirdParulidae-23%
Rock WrenTroglodytidae-4%
MacGillivray's WarblerParulidae+2%
Common YellowthroatParulidae+7%
Black-capped ChickadeeParidae+12%
Black-backed WoodpeckerPicidae+18%
American Three-toed WoodpeckerPicidae+27%
Canyon WrenTroglodytidae+29%
Red-headed WoodpeckerPicidae+40%
Lewis's WoodpeckerPicidae+43%
Brown CreeperCerthiidae+54%
Yellow WarblerParulidae+95%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae+128%
Mountain BluebirdTurdidae+146%
Warbling VireoVireonidae+172%
American RobinTurdidae+178%
Plumbeous VireoVireonidae+178%
American RedstartParulidae+184%
Marsh WrenTroglodytidae+282%
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae+639%
Northern House WrenTroglodytidae+686%
Red-breasted NuthatchSittidae+776%
Townsend's SolitaireTurdidae+885%
Red-naped SapsuckerPicidae13×
Ruby-crowned KingletRegulidae13×
Swainson's ThrushTurdidae18×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.