BirdAnalyst
Guild · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Forest Birds In South Dakota

All statesSouth Dakota

60 species in this guild. As a group they are +57%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Forest Birds In South Dakota Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.0 (95% range 1.3–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.0 (95% range 1.3–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.01.32.7
20272.01.32.7
20282.01.32.7
20292.01.32.8
20302.01.32.8

Member Species In South Dakota

Forest birds species in South Dakota.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Black-billed CuckooCuculidae-94%
Pine SiskinFringillidae-90%
Clark's NutcrackerCorvidae-80%
Blue JayCorvidae-61%
Brown ThrasherMimidae-52%
Field SparrowPasserellidae-45%
Golden-crowned KingletRegulidae-42%
Pinyon JayCorvidae-42%
Yellow-billed CuckooCuculidae-33%
Cassin's FinchFringillidae-33%
Red-eyed VireoVireonidae-31%
Eastern BluebirdTurdidae-29%
Red CrossbillFringillidae-27%
Rock WrenTroglodytidae-26%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae-18%
OvenbirdParulidae-16%
VeeryTurdidae-3%
Bell's VireoVireonidae-3%
American GoldfinchFringillidae+2%
Common YellowthroatParulidae+16%
Lewis's WoodpeckerPicidae+18%
Orchard OrioleIcteridae+23%
Black-capped ChickadeeParidae+25%
Lazuli BuntingCardinalidae+25%
Canyon WrenTroglodytidae+29%
American Three-toed WoodpeckerPicidae+31%
Chipping SparrowPasserellidae+33%
Brown CreeperCerthiidae+54%
Red-headed WoodpeckerPicidae+60%
Black-backed WoodpeckerPicidae+69%
Baltimore OrioleIcteridae+74%
Yellow WarblerParulidae+95%
MacGillivray's WarblerParulidae+109%
Indigo BuntingCardinalidae+111%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae+124%
Mountain BluebirdTurdidae+149%
Plumbeous VireoVireonidae+154%
American RedstartParulidae+182%
American RobinTurdidae+196%
Gray CatbirdMimidae+197%
Song SparrowPasserellidae+208%
Warbling VireoVireonidae+255%
Spotted TowheePasserellidae+256%
Canada JayCorvidae+259%
Western TanagerCardinalidae+274%
Northern CardinalCardinalidae+279%
Blue GrosbeakCardinalidae+284%
Marsh WrenTroglodytidae+295%
Rose-breasted GrosbeakCardinalidae+301%
Yellow-breasted ChatIcteriidae+471%
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae+579%
Cedar WaxwingBombycillidae+584%
Northern House WrenTroglodytidae+739%
Bullock's OrioleIcteridae+741%
Black-headed GrosbeakCardinalidae+871%
Red-breasted NuthatchSittidae+887%
Townsend's SolitaireTurdidae13×
Ruby-crowned KingletRegulidae16×
Red-naped SapsuckerPicidae16×
Swainson's ThrushTurdidae22×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.