BirdAnalyst
Guild · New Jersey · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Forest Birds In New Jersey

All statesNew Jersey

66 species in this guild. As a group they are +6%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in New Jersey. See the full index history below.

Forest Birds In New Jersey Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in New Jersey is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.7 (95% range 4.8–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.8–6.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in New Jersey is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.7 (95% range 4.8–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.74.76.7
20275.74.76.7
20285.74.86.7
20295.74.86.7
20305.74.86.7

Member Species In New Jersey

Forest birds species in New Jersey.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Brown ThrasherMimidae-90%
Blue-winged WarblerParulidae-89%
Yellow-breasted ChatIcteriidae-88%
Black-billed CuckooCuculidae-80%
Golden-winged WarblerParulidae-73%
Eastern TowheePasserellidae-69%
Field SparrowPasserellidae-65%
Prairie WarblerParulidae-50%
Black-throated Green WarblerParulidae-46%
Blue JayCorvidae-43%
Northern WaterthrushParulidae-33%
Hermit ThrushTurdidae-33%
Orchard OrioleIcteridae-21%
American RobinTurdidae-9%
Baltimore OrioleIcteridae-8%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae-3%
Blackburnian WarblerParulidae-3%
Louisiana WaterthrushParulidae-2%
Marsh WrenTroglodytidae-2%
Common YellowthroatParulidae-2%
Brown CreeperCerthiidae-0%
Wood ThrushTurdidae+2%
Song SparrowPasserellidae+13%
Kentucky WarblerParulidae+14%
Yellow-billed CuckooCuculidae+16%
Indigo BuntingCardinalidae+21%
Blue-headed VireoVireonidae+37%
Chipping SparrowPasserellidae+43%
Rose-breasted GrosbeakCardinalidae+43%
Northern House WrenTroglodytidae+55%
Cerulean WarblerParulidae+70%
Red-eyed VireoVireonidae+73%
Black-and-white WarblerParulidae+84%
Red-headed WoodpeckerPicidae+85%
White-eyed VireoVireonidae+91%
Chestnut-sided WarblerParulidae+91%
Scarlet TanagerCardinalidae+113%
Yellow WarblerParulidae+114%
Carolina ChickadeeParidae+114%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae+127%
Tufted TitmouseParidae+137%
Gray CatbirdMimidae+150%
Black-capped ChickadeeParidae+159%
Northern CardinalCardinalidae+163%
Summer TanagerCardinalidae+175%
Blue GrosbeakCardinalidae+183%
Yellow-throated VireoVireonidae+210%
American GoldfinchFringillidae+230%
Hooded WarblerParulidae+249%
Worm-eating WarblerParulidae+311%
Pine WarblerParulidae+341%
Yellow-throated WarblerParulidae+350%
Northern ParulaParulidae+381%
Ruby-throated HummingbirdTrochilidae+394%
OvenbirdParulidae+507%
Prothonotary WarblerParulidae+613%
Eastern BluebirdTurdidae+698%
VeeryTurdidae+749%
American RedstartParulidae+778%
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae11×
Warbling VireoVireonidae12×
Pileated WoodpeckerPicidae12×
Blue-gray GnatcatcherPolioptilidae27×
Red-bellied WoodpeckerPicidae28×
Cedar WaxwingBombycillidae33×
Carolina WrenTroglodytidae54×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.