BirdAnalyst
Guild · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Forest Birds In Michigan

All statesMichigan

60 species in this guild. As a group they are +31%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Forest Birds In Michigan Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.1 (95% range 3.6–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.6–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.1 (95% range 3.6–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.03.54.6
20264.13.54.6
20274.13.54.6
20284.13.64.7
20294.13.64.7

Member Species In Michigan

Forest birds species in Michigan.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Boreal ChickadeeParidae-74%
Red-headed WoodpeckerPicidae-70%
Northern WaterthrushParulidae-68%
Marsh WrenTroglodytidae-51%
Golden-winged WarblerParulidae-40%
Tennessee WarblerParulidae-38%
Black-backed WoodpeckerPicidae-28%
Yellow-throated WarblerParulidae-24%
Louisiana WaterthrushParulidae-10%
VeeryTurdidae-10%
Wood ThrushTurdidae-7%
Canada WarblerParulidae-5%
Prothonotary WarblerParulidae-2%
Cape May WarblerParulidae-1%
Ruby-crowned KingletRegulidae+1%
American RobinTurdidae+9%
Warbling VireoVireonidae+9%
Swainson's ThrushTurdidae+18%
Connecticut WarblerParulidae+23%
Common YellowthroatParulidae+37%
Cerulean WarblerParulidae+49%
Eastern BluebirdTurdidae+66%
Bay-breasted WarblerParulidae+68%
Hermit ThrushTurdidae+72%
Yellow WarblerParulidae+76%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae+97%
Chestnut-sided WarblerParulidae+100%
OvenbirdParulidae+105%
Palm WarblerParulidae+123%
Philadelphia VireoVireonidae+131%
Hooded WarblerParulidae+131%
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae+143%
Red-eyed VireoVireonidae+191%
Black-capped ChickadeeParidae+205%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae+209%
Mourning WarblerParulidae+260%
Northern House WrenTroglodytidae+267%
Kirtland's WarblerParulidae+269%
Tufted TitmouseParidae+314%
American RedstartParulidae+380%
Brown CreeperCerthiidae+408%
Black-and-white WarblerParulidae+422%
Blue-winged WarblerParulidae+443%
Golden-crowned KingletRegulidae+465%
Black-throated Green WarblerParulidae+470%
Blackburnian WarblerParulidae+485%
Winter WrenTroglodytidae+541%
Blue-gray GnatcatcherPolioptilidae+650%
Black-throated Blue WarblerParulidae+668%
Nashville WarblerParulidae+670%
Yellow-bellied SapsuckerPicidae+739%
Carolina WrenTroglodytidae+756%
Yellow-throated VireoVireonidae+833%
Magnolia WarblerParulidae12×
Pileated WoodpeckerPicidae13×
Northern ParulaParulidae14×
Red-bellied WoodpeckerPicidae18×
Red-breasted NuthatchSittidae33×
Blue-headed VireoVireonidae34×
Pine WarblerParulidae39×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.