BirdAnalyst
Guild · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Forest Birds In Michigan

All statesMichigan

87 species in this guild. As a group they are +11%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Forest Birds In Michigan Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.6 (95% range 3.9–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.9–5.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.6 (95% range 3.9–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.63.95.3
20274.63.95.3
20284.63.95.3
20294.63.95.3
20304.63.95.3

Member Species In Michigan

Forest birds species in Michigan.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Pine SiskinFringillidae-80%
Yellow-breasted ChatIcteriidae-79%
Boreal ChickadeeParidae-74%
Evening GrosbeakFringillidae-73%
Black-billed CuckooCuculidae-72%
Tennessee WarblerParulidae-72%
Field SparrowPasserellidae-68%
Northern WaterthrushParulidae-66%
Red-headed WoodpeckerPicidae-65%
Brown ThrasherMimidae-62%
White-winged CrossbillFringillidae-58%
Marsh WrenTroglodytidae-51%
Canada JayCorvidae-50%
Song SparrowPasserellidae-50%
American GoldfinchFringillidae-46%
Cape May WarblerParulidae-42%
Golden-winged WarblerParulidae-33%
Black-backed WoodpeckerPicidae-28%
Prothonotary WarblerParulidae-27%
Yellow-billed CuckooCuculidae-25%
Yellow-throated WarblerParulidae-24%
Purple FinchFringillidae-16%
Ruby-crowned KingletRegulidae-14%
Louisiana WaterthrushParulidae-10%
Eastern TowheePasserellidae+3%
VeeryTurdidae+3%
Wood ThrushTurdidae+11%
American RobinTurdidae+12%
Warbling VireoVireonidae+13%
Gray CatbirdMimidae+14%
Canada WarblerParulidae+15%
Connecticut WarblerParulidae+23%
Baltimore OrioleIcteridae+24%
Indigo BuntingCardinalidae+24%
Red CrossbillFringillidae+24%
Swainson's ThrushTurdidae+26%
White-throated SparrowPasserellidae+36%
Blue JayCorvidae+43%
Cerulean WarblerParulidae+48%
Common YellowthroatParulidae+49%
Chipping SparrowPasserellidae+61%
Bay-breasted WarblerParulidae+68%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae+72%
Eastern BluebirdTurdidae+73%
Hermit ThrushTurdidae+79%
Hooded WarblerParulidae+82%
Palm WarblerParulidae+89%
Yellow WarblerParulidae+89%
Scarlet TanagerCardinalidae+96%
Rose-breasted GrosbeakCardinalidae+98%
Chestnut-sided WarblerParulidae+113%
OvenbirdParulidae+120%
Lincoln's SparrowPasserellidae+126%
Philadelphia VireoVireonidae+131%
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae+132%
Northern CardinalCardinalidae+146%
Cedar WaxwingBombycillidae+163%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae+191%
Red-eyed VireoVireonidae+199%
Black-capped ChickadeeParidae+217%
Northern House WrenTroglodytidae+258%
Mourning WarblerParulidae+285%
Ruby-throated HummingbirdTrochilidae+307%
Orchard OrioleIcteridae+324%
Tufted TitmouseParidae+337%
Kirtland's WarblerParulidae+341%
American RedstartParulidae+409%
Black-and-white WarblerParulidae+414%
Blackburnian WarblerParulidae+433%
Blue-winged WarblerParulidae+449%
Black-throated Green WarblerParulidae+457%
Winter WrenTroglodytidae+458%
Golden-crowned KingletRegulidae+541%
Brown CreeperCerthiidae+565%
Black-throated Blue WarblerParulidae+601%
Blue-gray GnatcatcherPolioptilidae+654%
Nashville WarblerParulidae+717%
Yellow-throated VireoVireonidae+826%
Carolina WrenTroglodytidae+888%
Yellow-bellied SapsuckerPicidae12×
Magnolia WarblerParulidae12×
Pileated WoodpeckerPicidae13×
Northern ParulaParulidae14×
Red-bellied WoodpeckerPicidae18×
Blue-headed VireoVireonidae32×
Red-breasted NuthatchSittidae35×
Pine WarblerParulidae45×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.