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Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Connecticut Warbler Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Connecticut Warbler in Michigan has edged up: up 23% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

+23%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Connecticut Warbler Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Connecticut Warbler in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Connecticut Warbler Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Connecticut Warbler in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Connecticut Warbler in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.020.000.07
20240.020.000.07
20250.020.000.07
20260.020.000.07
20270.020.000.07

Connecticut Warbler Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Connecticut Warbler in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Isabella419891986
Gibbs City219851985
Cunard220181977
Frederic219811980
Tahquamenon219881988
Skegemog Pt220002000
Bergland119821982
Herman119841984
Crystal Fls119901988
Maple Grove120042004
Ishpeming120212021
Riggsville119941994
Pine River120151992
Shingleton119811979
Red Oak119901990
Muskallonge120221994
Gilchrist119911989

Connecticut Warbler Population Trend in Other States

minnesotanew-yorkwisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.