BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Nuttall's Woodpecker

PicidaeForest birdsDryobates nuttallii

Nuttall's Woodpecker has surged: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+76%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
138RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Nuttall's Woodpecker

The Nuttall's Woodpecker (Dryobates nuttallii) is a North American member of the Woodpeckers (Picidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
6–19.5 in long (15–50 cm) — a chisel-billed climber (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 138 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 1 state, most concentrated in the Coastal California.
Family
Picidae · Forest birds

Notable Nuttall's Woodpecker TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Nuttall's Woodpecker. See the full index history below.

Nuttall's Woodpecker Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Nuttall's Woodpecker is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.09 (95% range 0.04–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Nuttall's Woodpecker is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.09 (95% range 0.04–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.040.14
20260.090.040.14
20270.090.040.14
20280.090.040.14
20290.090.040.14

Where the Nuttall's Woodpecker Is Detected

BBS routes recording Nuttall's Woodpecker, sized by most recent count.

Nuttall's Woodpecker Population Trend by State

Nuttall's Woodpecker population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
California+49%1970138

Nuttall's Woodpecker Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Nuttall's Woodpecker population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest-53%197312
Sierra Nevada-80%197314
Coastal California+65%1970104
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts-61%19747

Nuttall's Woodpecker Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 76% since 1970.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.