BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Nuttall's Woodpecker In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaForest birds

Nuttall's Woodpecker in Coastal California has risen sharply: up 65% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+65%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Nuttall's Woodpecker has risen sharply in Coastal California: up 65% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Nuttall's Woodpecker In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Nuttall's Woodpecker in Coastal California is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 4.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.3 (95% range 3.6–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.6–7.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Nuttall's Woodpecker in Coastal California is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 4.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.3 (95% range 3.6–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.13.46.8
20265.23.56.9
20275.23.56.9
20285.33.67.0
20295.33.67.0

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Nuttall's Woodpecker in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CoyoteCALIFORNIA172024
Tres PinosCALIFORNIA162003
Lake BerryessaCALIFORNIA162024
RumseyCALIFORNIA152008
FolsomCALIFORNIA132024
SisquocCALIFORNIA132014
MoragaCALIFORNIA132024
Mt LagunaCALIFORNIA121987
Elizabeth LkCALIFORNIA122016
JacksonCALIFORNIA121992
Yolla BollyCALIFORNIA122024
White RiverCALIFORNIA111992
Tres Pinos 2CALIFORNIA112011
Lake CachumaCALIFORNIA102016
OrovilleCALIFORNIA102024
AuburnCALIFORNIA91980
OnoCALIFORNIA92012
LockwoodCALIFORNIA92024
PolomaCALIFORNIA92024
Elsinore MtnCALIFORNIA82024
Jofegan 2CALIFORNIA82024
Santa YnezCALIFORNIA72019
Gold HillCALIFORNIA72024
ZamoraCALIFORNIA72024
Carmel ValCALIFORNIA62024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.