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Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Nuttall's Woodpecker In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Nuttall's Woodpecker in Northern Pacific Rainforest has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-76%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Nuttall's Woodpecker has collapsed in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Nuttall's Woodpecker In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Nuttall's Woodpecker in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±100.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±100.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Nuttall's Woodpecker in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±100.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.010.000.05
20270.010.000.05
20280.010.000.04
20290.010.000.04
20300.000.000.04

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Nuttall's Woodpecker in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
UkiahCALIFORNIA62011
HullvilleCALIFORNIA32007
LongvaleCALIFORNIA22015
HoneydewCALIFORNIA11968
Fish RockCALIFORNIA12005
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA12025
NavarroCALIFORNIA11972
Junction CtyCALIFORNIA12010
LaytonvilleCALIFORNIA11990
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA12014
WhiskeytownCALIFORNIA12002
French GulchCALIFORNIA12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.