BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blackpoll Warbler Population Analysis

ParulidaeForest birdsSetophaga striata

Blackpoll Warbler has surged: up 426% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+426%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
160RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Blackpoll Warbler

The Blackpoll Warbler (Setophaga striata) is a North American member of the Wood-Warblers (Parulidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
4.5–5.5 in long (11–14 cm) — a small, active songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 160 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 8 states, most concentrated in the Atlantic Northern Forest.
Family
Parulidae · Forest birds

Notable Blackpoll Warbler TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blackpoll Warbler. See the full index history below.

Blackpoll Warbler Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blackpoll Warbler is projected to rise about 141% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.06–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±185.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+141%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±185.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blackpoll Warbler is projected to rise about 141% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.06–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±185.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.140.050.22
20270.140.050.22
20280.140.050.22
20290.140.060.23
20300.140.060.23

Where the Blackpoll Warbler Is Detected

BBS routes recording Blackpoll Warbler, sized by most recent count.

Blackpoll Warbler Population Trend by State

Blackpoll Warbler population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaska+16%197689
Maine-84%197232
Massachusettsinsufficient datan/a2
New Hampshire-70%197011
New York+66%197313
Pennsylvaniainsufficient datan/a1
Vermont-10%197211
West Virginiainsufficient datan/a1

Blackpoll Warbler Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Blackpoll Warbler population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 2-63%198716
BCR 4+48%197660
Northern Pacific Rainforest-90%198512
Atlantic Northern Forest-91%197067

Blackpoll Warbler Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 426% since 1970.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.