BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blackpoll Warbler In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Blackpoll Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest has collapsed: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-91%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blackpoll Warbler has collapsed in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blackpoll Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±168.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±168.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blackpoll Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±168.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.09
20260.000.000.09
20270.000.000.09
20280.000.000.09
20290.000.000.09

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Blackpoll Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crawford NotNEW-HAMPSHIRE51973
Clayton LakeMAINE41992
St Regis FlsNEW-YORK32008
GreenwoodMAINE21972
BentonMAINE21972
BaxterMAINE21988
CambridgeMAINE21976
MedwayMAINE22018
YankeetuladiMAINE21994
ClarksvilleNEW-HAMPSHIRE22009
NewcombNEW-YORK21971
MiddlesexVERMONT22008
BiddefordMAINE11989
Wilson MillsMAINE12006
BethelMAINE12019
TurnerMAINE11974
ReedsMAINE12024
Otisfield GrMAINE11986
HartfordMAINE11976
ManchesterMAINE11982
WarrenMAINE11975
FreedomMAINE11976
HarmonyMAINE11987
CooperMAINE11992
Moose RiverMAINE11993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.