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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blackpoll Warbler In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Blackpoll Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest has collapsed: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-91%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Blackpoll Warbler has collapsed in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Blackpoll Warbler In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blackpoll Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±168.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±168.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blackpoll Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±168.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.09
20260.000.000.09
20270.000.000.09
20280.000.000.09
20290.000.000.09

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Blackpoll Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crawford NotNEW-HAMPSHIRE51973
Clayton LakeMAINE41992
St Regis FlsNEW-YORK32008
GreenwoodMAINE21972
BentonMAINE21972
BaxterMAINE21988
CambridgeMAINE21976
MedwayMAINE22018
YankeetuladiMAINE21994
ClarksvilleNEW-HAMPSHIRE22009
NewcombNEW-YORK21971
MiddlesexVERMONT22008
BiddefordMAINE11989
Wilson MillsMAINE12006
BethelMAINE12019
TurnerMAINE11974
ReedsMAINE12024
Otisfield GrMAINE11986
HartfordMAINE11976
ManchesterMAINE11982
WarrenMAINE11975
FreedomMAINE11976
HarmonyMAINE11987
CooperMAINE11992
Moose RiverMAINE11993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.