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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blackpoll Warbler Population Trend in Alaska

All statesForest birds

Blackpoll Warbler in Alaska has held roughly steady: up 7% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+7%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Blackpoll Warbler Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blackpoll Warbler in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Blackpoll Warbler Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Blackpoll Warbler in Alaska is projected to rise about 78% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 0.04–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+78%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–7.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±110%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blackpoll Warbler in Alaska is projected to rise about 78% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 0.04–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.80.067.6
20263.80.057.6
20273.80.057.6
20283.80.047.6
20293.80.047.6

Blackpoll Warbler Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Blackpoll Warbler in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tupuknuk7419951995
Gweek River4420021994
Dillingham4120191993
Goose Bay3319821975
Mud River2820241993
Sheep Mtn2620171983
Togiak River2320051999
Dillingham (Short)2219841984
Selawik (Short)2219871986
Skilak Lake2119851977
King Salmon2020241993
Monahan1820211983
Wasilla1819831983
Hather Creek1720241993
Cantwell1420211982
Kalifonsky1419821982
Kugarak (Short)1419871986
Homer1219821978
Savage1220242003
Goodnews Bay1020051999
Galena (Short)1020241988
Thorne Bay919901990
Circle720182005
Matanuska719831983
Caribou Mtn.720211997

Blackpoll Warbler Population Trend in Other States

mainemassachusettsnew-hampshirenew-yorkpennsylvaniavermont

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.