BirdAnalyst
Guild · Massachusetts · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Forest Birds In Massachusetts

All statesMassachusetts

68 species in this guild. As a group they are +15%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in Massachusetts. See the full index history below.

Forest Birds In Massachusetts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 8.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 5.7–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.7–8.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 8.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 5.7–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.05.78.4
20277.15.78.4
20287.15.78.4
20297.15.78.5
20307.15.78.5

Member Species In Massachusetts

Forest birds species in Massachusetts.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
White-throated SparrowPasserellidae-98%
Brown ThrasherMimidae-94%
Field SparrowPasserellidae-89%
Purple FinchFringillidae-81%
Eastern TowheePasserellidae-81%
Prairie WarblerParulidae-73%
Nashville WarblerParulidae-71%
Canada WarblerParulidae-69%
Wood ThrushTurdidae-62%
Blue JayCorvidae-59%
Golden-winged WarblerParulidae-58%
Baltimore OrioleIcteridae-58%
Swainson's ThrushTurdidae-49%
Magnolia WarblerParulidae-41%
Black-billed CuckooCuculidae-40%
Rose-breasted GrosbeakCardinalidae-29%
American RobinTurdidae-21%
Mourning WarblerParulidae-18%
Evening GrosbeakFringillidae-17%
Common YellowthroatParulidae-11%
Blue-winged WarblerParulidae-5%
Hermit ThrushTurdidae+5%
Black-throated Blue WarblerParulidae+10%
Scarlet TanagerCardinalidae+12%
Song SparrowPasserellidae+13%
Black-throated Green WarblerParulidae+24%
Black-and-white WarblerParulidae+36%
VeeryTurdidae+44%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae+52%
Northern House WrenTroglodytidae+52%
Black-capped ChickadeeParidae+58%
Chestnut-sided WarblerParulidae+58%
Gray CatbirdMimidae+70%
Orchard OrioleIcteridae+78%
Worm-eating WarblerParulidae+93%
Indigo BuntingCardinalidae+101%
Chipping SparrowPasserellidae+115%
Yellow-billed CuckooCuculidae+123%
Yellow WarblerParulidae+126%
American RedstartParulidae+184%
Blackburnian WarblerParulidae+202%
OvenbirdParulidae+207%
Marsh WrenTroglodytidae+209%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae+218%
American GoldfinchFringillidae+245%
Winter WrenTroglodytidae+247%
Red-eyed VireoVireonidae+261%
Northern WaterthrushParulidae+262%
Golden-crowned KingletRegulidae+266%
Cedar WaxwingBombycillidae+315%
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae+317%
Red-breasted NuthatchSittidae+365%
Ruby-throated HummingbirdTrochilidae+372%
Northern ParulaParulidae+416%
Louisiana WaterthrushParulidae+468%
Yellow-bellied SapsuckerPicidae+520%
Brown CreeperCerthiidae+545%
Pine WarblerParulidae+549%
Eastern BluebirdTurdidae+551%
Warbling VireoVireonidae+573%
Blue-headed VireoVireonidae+577%
Yellow-throated VireoVireonidae+871%
Blue-gray GnatcatcherPolioptilidae14×
Pileated WoodpeckerPicidae14×
Red-bellied WoodpeckerPicidae24×
Northern CardinalCardinalidae63×
Carolina WrenTroglodytidae73×
Tufted TitmouseParidae121×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.