BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-fronted Woodpecker

PicidaeForest birdsMelanerpes aurifrons

Golden-fronted Woodpecker has edged down: down 22% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-22%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
118RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Golden-fronted Woodpecker

The Golden-fronted Woodpecker (Melanerpes aurifrons) is a North American member of the Woodpeckers (Picidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
6–19.5 in long (15–50 cm) — a chisel-billed climber (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 118 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 2 states, most concentrated in the Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Family
Picidae · Forest birds

Notable Golden-fronted Woodpecker TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Golden-fronted Woodpecker. See the full index history below.

Golden-fronted Woodpecker Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Golden-fronted Woodpecker is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.03–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-fronted Woodpecker is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.03–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.030.32
20260.170.030.31
20270.170.030.31
20280.170.030.31
20290.170.030.31

Where the Golden-fronted Woodpecker Is Detected

BBS routes recording Golden-fronted Woodpecker, sized by most recent count.

Golden-fronted Woodpecker Population Trend by State

Golden-fronted Woodpecker population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Oklahomainsufficient datan/a2
Texas-38%1969116

Golden-fronted Woodpecker Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Golden-fronted Woodpecker population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Shortgrass Prairie-45%19716
Central Mixed Grass Prairie+179%196924
Edwards Plateau+225%196916
Oaks and Prairies+837%196923
Chihuahuan Desert-1%196911
Tamaulipan Brushlands-50%196928
Gulf Coastal Prairie+550%197010

Golden-fronted Woodpecker Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 22% since 1969.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.