BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-fronted Woodpecker In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieForest birds

Golden-fronted Woodpecker in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 550% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+550%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden-fronted Woodpecker has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 550% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Golden-fronted Woodpecker in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 2.1–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-fronted Woodpecker in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 2.1–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.11.84.4
20263.21.94.4
20273.22.04.5
20283.32.04.5
20293.32.14.6

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Golden-fronted Woodpecker in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS282024
Lag AtascosaTEXAS232024
Loyola BeachTEXAS152009
San PedroTEXAS152023
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS72023
Bayside 3TEXAS42024
Goliad PrairieTEXAS42016
PetronilaTEXAS12024
BaysideTEXAS12002
Bayside 2TEXAS12001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.