BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Golden-fronted Woodpecker In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Golden-fronted Woodpecker in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 183% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+183%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden-fronted Woodpecker has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 183% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Golden-fronted Woodpecker In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Golden-fronted Woodpecker in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.85 (95% range 0.34–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.85Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.34–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-fronted Woodpecker in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.85 (95% range 0.34–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.830.321.3
20270.830.321.3
20280.840.331.4
20290.850.341.4
20300.850.341.4

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Golden-fronted Woodpecker in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EldoradoTEXAS182023
GirardTEXAS152025
HackberryTEXAS132024
WilliamsTEXAS122025
HollisOKLAHOMA102025
ClarendonTEXAS92024
ChildressTEXAS72025
RotanTEXAS62024
ShieldsTEXAS62001
SilverTEXAS62025
LakeviewTEXAS62025
GraybackTEXAS52024
MertzonTEXAS42019
Pear ValleyTEXAS32025
Mertzon 2TEXAS32025
Beaver CreekTEXAS32025
HaskellTEXAS22025
WallTEXAS22022
ReedOKLAHOMA12019
WinchellTEXAS12019
WeinertTEXAS11994
HawleyTEXAS12025
CharlieTEXAS11995
Shields 2TEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.