BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-fronted Woodpecker In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Golden-fronted Woodpecker in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 179% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+179%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden-fronted Woodpecker has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 178% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Golden-fronted Woodpecker in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.84 (95% range 0.32–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.84Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.32–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-fronted Woodpecker in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.84 (95% range 0.32–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.810.301.3
20260.820.301.3
20270.820.311.3
20280.830.321.3
20290.840.321.4

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Golden-fronted Woodpecker in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EldoradoTEXAS182023
HackberryTEXAS132024
ClarendonTEXAS92024
WilliamsTEXAS82024
ChildressTEXAS72024
GirardTEXAS72023
RotanTEXAS62024
ShieldsTEXAS62001
GraybackTEXAS52024
MertzonTEXAS42019
Mertzon 2TEXAS32024
HollisOKLAHOMA22024
Pear ValleyTEXAS22024
WallTEXAS22022
HawleyTEXAS22024
SilverTEXAS22024
ReedOKLAHOMA12019
WinchellTEXAS12019
WeinertTEXAS11994
HaskellTEXAS12024
Beaver CreekTEXAS12023
CharlieTEXAS11995
LakeviewTEXAS12024
Shields 2TEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.