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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Golden-fronted Woodpecker In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauForest birds

Golden-fronted Woodpecker in Edwards Plateau has surged: up 225% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+225%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden-fronted Woodpecker has surged in Edwards Plateau: up 225% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Golden-fronted Woodpecker in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 2.5–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–5.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-fronted Woodpecker in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 2.5–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.92.35.6
20264.02.35.7
20274.02.45.7
20284.12.45.8
20294.12.55.8

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Golden-fronted Woodpecker in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HarperTEXAS82024
Dripping SpgTEXAS82024
UtopiaTEXAS72024
LeakeyTEXAS72024
San SabaTEXAS42024
BoerneTEXAS32024
Valley SpgsTEXAS32024
MontellTEXAS32024
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS32024
Allen CreekTEXAS32024
RockspringTEXAS32024
FitzhughTEXAS21974
Indian MtnTEXAS22024
KempnerTEXAS12023
AdamsvilleTEXAS12021
LeanderTEXAS12004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.