BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Golden-fronted Woodpecker In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

Golden-fronted Woodpecker in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 830% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+830%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Golden-fronted Woodpecker has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 830% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Golden-fronted Woodpecker In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Golden-fronted Woodpecker in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.7–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Golden-fronted Woodpecker in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.7–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.51.63.3
20272.51.63.3
20282.51.73.4
20292.61.73.4
20302.61.73.4

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Golden-fronted Woodpecker in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Three RiversTEXAS532025
CampbelltonTEXAS192024
BriteTEXAS172025
HobsonTEXAS152025
AlbanyTEXAS112025
Arenosa CrkTEXAS81970
HenriettaTEXAS82022
OlneyTEXAS42018
OakwoodTEXAS31987
FanninTEXAS32025
LockhartTEXAS22024
ComancheTEXAS22024
SchroederTEXAS11974
Lone OakTEXAS12021
Oak GroveTEXAS11988
Glen RoseTEXAS11967
GrafordTEXAS12008
CottonwoodTEXAS12025
YoakumTEXAS12025
BrucevilleTEXAS12021
DuranTEXAS11999
Whit Mtn.TEXAS12014
MegargelTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.