BirdAnalyst
Guild · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Forest Birds In Florida

All statesFlorida

29 species in this guild. As a group they are +48%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in Florida. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.8 (95% range 4.9–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.9–6.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.8 (95% range 4.9–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.74.86.6
20265.74.86.7
20275.84.86.7
20285.84.96.7
20295.84.96.8

Member Species In Florida

Forest birds species in Florida.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Prairie WarblerParulidae-85%
Black-whiskered VireoVireonidae-83%
Yellow WarblerParulidae-69%
Wood ThrushTurdidae-63%
Kentucky WarblerParulidae-53%
Red-eyed VireoVireonidae-38%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae-23%
Prothonotary WarblerParulidae-18%
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae-12%
Common YellowthroatParulidae-12%
Red-headed WoodpeckerPicidae-8%
Hooded WarblerParulidae+5%
Pine WarblerParulidae+26%
White-eyed VireoVireonidae+26%
Eastern BluebirdTurdidae+29%
American RobinTurdidae+33%
Brown-headed NuthatchSittidae+42%
Red-bellied WoodpeckerPicidae+54%
Yellow-throated WarblerParulidae+64%
Carolina WrenTroglodytidae+68%
Carolina ChickadeeParidae+103%
Tufted TitmouseParidae+129%
Pileated WoodpeckerPicidae+199%
Blue-gray GnatcatcherPolioptilidae+201%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae+236%
Yellow-throated VireoVireonidae+244%
Northern ParulaParulidae+292%
Swainson's WarblerParulidae+302%
Red-cockaded WoodpeckerPicidae14×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.