BirdAnalyst
Guild · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Forest Birds In Florida

All statesFlorida

49 species in this guild. As a group they are +16%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for forest birds in Florida. See the full index history below.

Forest Birds In Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 6.1 (95% range 5.1–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.1–7.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Forest birds in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 6.1 (95% range 5.1–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.05.17.0
20276.15.17.0
20286.15.17.0
20296.15.17.1
20306.15.17.1

Member Species In Florida

Forest birds species in Florida.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Field SparrowPasserellidae-97%
White-crowned PigeonColumbidae-96%
Smooth-billed AniCuculidae-94%
Prairie WarblerParulidae-89%
Painted BuntingCardinalidae-86%
Spot-breasted OrioleIcteridae-84%
Black-whiskered VireoVireonidae-83%
Orchard OrioleIcteridae-81%
Wood ThrushTurdidae-77%
Florida Scrub-JayCorvidae-74%
Yellow WarblerParulidae-69%
Mangrove CuckooCuculidae-59%
Kentucky WarblerParulidae-53%
Eastern TowheePasserellidae-51%
Bachman's SparrowPasserellidae-48%
Indigo BuntingCardinalidae-44%
Yellow-billed CuckooCuculidae-40%
Red-eyed VireoVireonidae-37%
Blue JayCorvidae-37%
Summer TanagerCardinalidae-26%
Hairy WoodpeckerPicidae-23%
Common YellowthroatParulidae-12%
White-breasted NuthatchSittidae-11%
Hooded WarblerParulidae-11%
Prothonotary WarblerParulidae-10%
Brown ThrasherMimidae-4%
Northern CardinalCardinalidae+13%
Ruby-throated HummingbirdTrochilidae+13%
Red-headed WoodpeckerPicidae+20%
White-eyed VireoVireonidae+21%
Pine WarblerParulidae+23%
Eastern BluebirdTurdidae+37%
Brown-headed NuthatchSittidae+39%
Red-bellied WoodpeckerPicidae+53%
Carolina WrenTroglodytidae+67%
Yellow-throated WarblerParulidae+70%
American RobinTurdidae+71%
Blue GrosbeakCardinalidae+90%
Carolina ChickadeeParidae+110%
Yellow-breasted ChatIcteriidae+128%
Tufted TitmouseParidae+151%
Swainson's WarblerParulidae+160%
Blue-gray GnatcatcherPolioptilidae+216%
Pileated WoodpeckerPicidae+220%
Downy WoodpeckerPicidae+242%
Yellow-throated VireoVireonidae+256%
Northern ParulaParulidae+293%
Gray CatbirdMimidae+453%
Red-cockaded WoodpeckerPicidae14×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.