BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mangrove Cuckoo Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

Mangrove Cuckoo in Florida has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

-59%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mangrove Cuckoo Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mangrove Cuckoo has fallen sharply in Florida: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

Mangrove Cuckoo Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Mangrove Cuckoo in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2023, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2023TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2023 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mangrove Cuckoo in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2023, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752023
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20190.030.000.08
20200.030.000.08
20210.020.000.08
20220.020.000.08
20230.020.000.07

Mangrove Cuckoo Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Mangrove Cuckoo in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Key West319871987
Punta Gorda219841984
Flamingo220141983
Key Largo219911987
Plantation K119751975
Card Sound120161998
Weaver Stn120181993
Sugarloaf Key120042004
Sugarloaf Key 2120182005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.