BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-whiskered Vireo Population Trend in Florida

All statesForest birds

Black-whiskered Vireo in Florida has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-83%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-whiskered Vireo Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-whiskered Vireo has collapsed in Florida: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-whiskered Vireo Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Black-whiskered Vireo in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.35 (95% range 0.00–0.95). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±825.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±825.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-whiskered Vireo in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.35 (95% range 0.00–0.95). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±825.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.360.000.97
20260.360.000.96
20270.350.000.96
20280.350.000.96
20290.350.000.95

Black-whiskered Vireo Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Black-whiskered Vireo in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Key Largo5019911987
Key West3919871987
Sugarloaf Key2620041999
Card Sound620211998
Vero Beach520011993
Sugarloaf Key 2520212005
Plantation K420041966
Redlands220191994
Broward119681966
Punta Gorda119951980
Boca Raton119831983
Flamingo120191983
Sebastian119891989
Pinelands120242004
Homestead120131988
Holey Land120131999
Weaver Stn120191987
St Vincent I120022002

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.